BCG predicted a reduction in auto production in 2021 by 7-9 million cars

BCG predicted a reduction in auto production in 2021 by 7-9 million cars


The crisis in the semiconductor market may provoke a decrease in the global production of cars this year by 7-9 million units. Such conclusions follow from a study conducted by the consulting company Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

“Based on the analysis of data from the global automotive industry, BCG predicted that this year, due to a shortage of semiconductors, will not be produced from 7 to 9 million vehicles,” – noted in a study by the Boston Consulting Group.

In the first quarter of this year, the losses of automakers amounted to approximately 1.4 million units, in the second quarter – 2.6 million units. In the third and fourth quarters, according to forecasts of the Boston Consulting Group, the drop will be from 3 to 5 million copies, depending on the scenario of the development of this market.

The authors of the study report that this problem arose in the pre-pandemic time and became more complicated due to the growing demand for conductors from manufacturers of goods of other categories, especially consumer electronics, as well as the influence of weather factors on supplies (ice storm in Texas ) and other force majeure events (fire at the Renesas chip factory in Japan). The most significant production losses in the first six months of this year were suffered by the following companies: Ford – a drop of more than 700 thousand units, Stellantis (brands Chrysler, Citroen, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep, etc.) – almost 600 thousand units. and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi – more than 415 thousand units.

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, today the industry is gradually increasing reservations for capacities for the production of microcircuits, but in the fourth quarter, high demand for microcircuits from other industries is predicted against the background of growth in consumer electronics sales due to the beginning of the school year, as well as the New Year holidays, which will again increase the shortage of chips. With a typical production cycle of approximately 10-12 weeks and PCB assembly capacity 6-12 months in advance, the authors of the report report that significant changes in this area will not come soon.

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