Ukraine introduces special duties onn diesel and autogas. This step forced the Ukrainian tankers once again to consider the possibility of supply from other countries. But thens released a product with a certain discount and a waiver of the “enemy” fuel threatens motorists by raising the price of stelae station. However, much will depend on other factors.
We will remind, according to the text published on 22 July, government regulations, fees forn fuel will be introduced in two stages:
- For “diesel” duty since August 1, 2019 will amount to 3.75%, and from 1 October – already 4%.
- For liquefied natural gas since August 1, 1.75% and in October – 3%.
Keep the market in suspense
Thens are selling us the fuel a little cheaper. Including shipping to the border came out to $20-30 per ton cheaper. Other vendors still had to buy our way to our cordon.
According to experts, a 3.75% fee will increase the cost of tons of diesel fuel for about the same $25-30. Rise in the price of liquefied natural gas.
“The duty on diesel fuel from the pipe is approximately $30 per ton, or 0.65 UAH. per liter. According to Andriy Gerus, the government hopes that a trader of diesel fuel via pipeline transport will reduce his margin which is several times above the margin of W/d traders and the transport is by road. But it is a little hard to believe. The duty on liquefied natural gas in terms of cost about $10 per ton is approximately 0,14 UAH./l”, – noticed the head of the us company “Ukravtogaz” Andrei Dorofeev.
It should be noted that decisions on restrictive measures, the Cabinet adopted in mid-may. But the final decision was published only now. Initially, the project considered the option of introducing a 2% special duty on the import of diesel fuel per year to 2.5 million tons, and 25% on imports beyond this volume. On the duties on liquefied gas and does it was not.
Another difference from the original draft of the decree are restrictions on the supply of fuel specifically for pipelines. Apparently, the delay in official publication was associated with the discussions, what are the protective measures in the end to enter.
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Block the pipe
It is noteworthy that the “pipe” and the largest importer of diesel fuel, the Wexler group of companies associated with Viktor Medvedchuk. In Wexler has already warned of a possible rise in prices “diesel”, adding that the market is not “sverginate” margin on diesel fuel, supplied by pipeline, and control prices will not work.
Most of the tankers have refrained from comments before publishing the final version of a government document, but informally noted that prices at the pump will rise.
“The price is influenced by many factors: the price of oil, the dollar, etc. If you take the current situation, it is the special duty of 3-4% is approximately plus or minus 60-70 kopecks./l at the pump. But if oil falls, then prices may either not change or even fall a little,” – said the owner of the network of filling stations KLO Igor Cherniavsky.
The greatest risk, however, is not even in the fees, experts say. After all, no one really knows what will be the response of Moscow. Recently, then side claims monthly with their exporting volumes of deliveries to Ukraine. And if for July contracted enough for our country, the volume of diesel fuel and LPG, then in August-October, the situation can change dramatically.
This state of Affairs holds in the limbo of our traders who don’t know what to expect from. They have a choice: either to buy cheaper online from, but with the risk to remain without fuel, or to order by sea more expensive fuel from other “stable” countries.
Will there be a shortage
If still dare in response to the Ukrainian sanctions completely block or severely restrict the supply, at the moment Ukraine can form a certain shortage of fuel, experts say. Although over time we will be able to replace it.
“When a couple of months ago was the risk of cuts in our countryn supplies, our tankers have bought the more expensive “marine fuel” with the stock. But then thens resumed deliveries from cheaper. Now, after the introduction of special duties, can once again limit their companies supply. And on the replacement ofn fuel needs time, at least two weeks. Inventory of our tankers for about a week. That is to shift better now, but, again, delivery will be more expensive, but stable,” said us fuel market expert Leonid kosyanchuk.
Primarily on the supply of water may cross the South of Ukraine. The black sea fuel can supply to us from the Georgian ports, Greek, Romanian, Bulgarian suppliers.
“Supply by sea would be more in the South so accurately. But contracts quickly rewrite new ones will be only in October. And until that time will carry on the old basis, at contracted prices. Some time to us on the “tube” will go online with new duties”, – summed up Cherniavsky.