Whether urgently to fill a full tank and the canister, or there is little sense to wait? About AUTO-Consulting told by leading experts of our country.
Sometimes it seems that in our country a system of “nipple”. That is, the motion is in one direction only. As soon as the price of oil on world markets even slightly increasing, this immediately raises fuel prices for domestic gas stations. But when the price of oil drops, with price tags at gas stations usually… nothing happens. Or is not as fast as their rise. And this phenomenon is always a lot of reasons and sensible explanations. As will be this time, when the price of oil went into the negative zone, told by leading experts of our country.
First of all, said the Director of special projects in the SEC “Psyche”, Professor Gennady Ryabtsev, live oil at stock exchanges have not traded. Trade futures and derivatives – commitments to buy oil and insurance of those liabilities. It’s their quotes, not the oil itself went into negative zone. In addition, only 1 transaction out of 100 ends with commitments to supply oil. Just of April 20 was closed last contracts in may. And that means refineries would get the oil at a low price only in may.
Director of Consulting group “A-95” Sergey Kuiun believes that motorists can call a world oil crisis, oil holiday. Even despite the fact that oil has to us a very remote relation. After all, we mostly do not buy oil, and petroleum products. However, due to the decline in oil prices and the quarantine in Europe quotes have fallen to them. According to Sergey Kuyun, yesterday, the gasoline and diesel fuel lost per day is almost 30%. Thus, the 95-th gasoline in Northwest Europe is now worth $119 per ton, and diesel – $159. The hryvnia is the 2.5 UAH per liter of petrol and RS 3.5 per liter for diesel.
But do not hurry to run to the gas station. To these prices must be added taxes. The excise tax on gasoline is now at 6.3 UAH/liter, or two and a half times higher than the cost of the fuel. Another UAH 1.75/l will be VAT (is charged on the amount of excise tax and fuel costs). The excise tax on diesel fuel is 4.1 UAH/liter, the total VAT – 1.50 UAH/L.
What we see today at the gas station? In Kiev the average price of gasoline A-95 – 22,54 UAH/liter, and the cost of diesel fuel – of 21.76 UAH/l. And the average for Ukraine – 23,54 UAH/l and 23 UAH/liter, respectively. That is, the country is slightly higher than in the capital. Although, if you add up the prices of petroleum products in Europe and our taxes, the price would have to be less than 15 UAH/L. it is Clear that petroleum products at competitive prices have yet to reach us, and this business not one day. Maybe until they get there, prices will have time to grow?
According to the Consulting group “A-95”, in Ukraine the price for fuel is also going down now. In the “A-95” fixed daily reduction on different networks. Some gas stations dropped to 1.5 UAH/l. and the minimum price of diesel fuel is already below 18 UAH/l, petrol A-92 – 19 below UAH/liter, A-95 – below 19,50 UAH/liter. It means, says Mr. Kuyun that the domestic rate of price declines since the beginning of the year, broadly in line with the European average. For gasoline, we go toe-to-toe – 28%, in diesel fuel are a little bit behind: a decrease of 26% compared to 28% at the gas station of Europe.
According to Sergey Kuyun, if such a low price will be fixed for a month, the cost of A-95 column may fall to 16 UAH/liter, diesel fuel – UAH 14/L. Although, in reality such prices in Ukraine, he apparently did not really believe.
Gennady Ryabtsev believes that full European price reduction we will see because it overlapped the fall of the hryvnia. Although the decline in prices in our gas stations is already happening. According to mister Ryabtsev, this decline could be smaller and slower. Regardless of world prices, reducing price tags at gas stations big operators are pushing illegal immigrants. Latest offer minimal price because they do not pay taxes. Accordingly, major operators cut prices to avoid losing customers. Because the demand for fuel from-for quarantine, and so have declined by about 15-18%. Private traders and less travel, and public transport.
So will the fuel at 15 UAH/l? According to Gennady Ryabtseva, today there are bulk purchases for 13 UAH/liter. But it is without taxes. Therefore, given the low may the oil price, with all taxes during the month, according to mister Ryabtsev, we can predict that the price of a-95 gasoline down to UAH 19/L. of course, If the hryvnia will remain at the current level.
But this figure is good news, too.