According to expert estimates, automakers in the US and Europe could lose more than $ 100 billion in revenue, if they can’t get to the end of April to resume production in its factories closed because of the opposition of the outbreak of coronavirus. This was announced by the British business newspaper Financial Times, referring to the British research center AutoAnalysis.
In AutoAnalysis expect that European producers will lose $ 66 billion due to “non-production” of 2.6 million vehicles, and in the United States will lose $ 52 billion due to “non-production” 2 million vehicles. This estimate is based on previous production forecasts for 2020, including the release of new models and expected development of demand.
In March, all major European and North American automakers have suspended production because of non-proliferation measures of the new viral diseases, and because of falling demand. A number of companies have already managed to postpone the resumption of production, they were planning for the end of March – beginning of April. Japanese Nissan and American General Motors and Ford announced that they will be closed indefinitely.
Stop production to Europe each week means an additional loss of $ 8 billion and North America $ 7.5 billion, Experts of the car market already suspect that the situation does not return to normal until may, and that even the earliest assessment time.
In March in Western Europe, sales of new cars fell by about two-thirds, and in the United States they have reached a ten-year low. April will cause even more serious losses due to restrictions on the freedom of movement of consumers and forced the closure of the dealerships.
Research German economic Institute Ifo in Munich, prospects for the automotive business in Germany fell from minus 19.7 points in February to minus 33.7 in March.
Although new car sales may increase after the removal of hard constraints, consumers are likely to implement only part of the deferred purchases, as the economic situation and rising unemployment will weaken demand.
In China at the peak of the outbreak of coronavirus almost nobody bought a new car. And the latest data from China show that the acquisition of new vehicles to 40% lower than before the outbreak.
Individual automobile manufacturers have started to announce falling sales, although it affects the courses of actions. So for the first quarter of this year, sales of BMW Group decreased by 20.6%. This was announced by company’s Board on Monday.
In the first quarter of 2020 BMW AG sold 477 thousand cars of BMW, Rolls-Royce and Mini. Sales of these brands in China declined by 31%, Europe 18% and US 17%.
Because of the coronavirus 80% of European BMW dealers currently closed. In the US those – 70%.
Build on European and North American factories BMW is currently suspended, because, as stated, “the group flexibly adapts to demand.” In China, there is the first signs of recovery of sales.
On the background of the crisis the automotive industry 31 March, the administration of U.S. President Donald trump has significantly eased restrictions on car emissions imposed by the previous President. Under the new rules, by 2026, the car companies will have to increase the fuel efficiency of its new cars by 1.5% per year. According to the standard the Obama administration, the producers had to “make the car emissions more effective” by 5% per year over the same period. According to government estimates trump’s, the car company can save about $ 100 billion on such indulgence. In addition, the prices of new cars will decrease.