Regulations of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 678 dated July 24, and No. 624 of 17 July was introduced the special duty on pipeline diesel fuel and liquefied gas supplied from. Theoretically, and one and another kind of fuel should rise in price. However, this is not only not occurred, but the reverse process – the SG is even cheaper. At the same time in a press there were publications about possible growth of prices and even the shortage of these fuels. For clarification, the AUTO-Consulting turned to the experts.
Why cheaper liquefied natural gas
If we consider the curve of prices of SG (liquefied natural gas) shows that since June of this year it has dropped in price by UAH 2. Today, per liter of the SG are asked, on average, 11 UAH 50 kopecks.
The reason for this price decline was explained by the Director of special projects in the SEC “Psyche”, Professor Gennady Ryabtsev. In his opinion, after the announcement of the possible termination of the supply of SG from, many operators decided to create a reserve Fund SG and dozakazat additional volumes. As a result, in just a few months in Ukraine imported a record amount of SG. However, gas shortages, and the ban on its import from, was not.
Deliveries are continuing as before. And the reserve gas must be stored somewhere, and in Ukraine of capacities for storage of such a large amount of SG no. Also, keep the SG is not easy. This requires special equipment. Therefore, the operators who created the reserve Fund SG, now trying to quickly implement it. Supply exceeds demand, which, according to Gennady Ryabtseva, and led to lower prices in SG. But the phenomenon is temporary.
Will there be a shortage of diesel fuel
Talk about soaring prices and shortages of diesel fuel, of course, first of all profitable for market operators, who sell DT. But if you look at the dynamics of prices, you can see that today they are without Foundation. A record price of diesel fuel in recent years it has been in November 2018 – more than 32 UAH/liter. And now – the same price as in August 2018 – on the threshold of 30 UAH/liter. But things can change.
According to Gennady Ryabtseva, for the past two years, the main supplier of diesel fuel in Ukraine was the pipe from. And this is the cheapest method of delivery DT. Therefore, pipe was a price “anchor” for other suppliers. But now because of special duty on diesel fuel from pipe, has become competitive and the cost of shipping fuel by rail. This has opened opportunities for suppliers of diesel fuel from other countries. For example, from Belarus. And since the Ukrainian market importers of fuel considered premium because they earn more here than on the export to other countries, mister Ryabtsev believes that the price of diesel fuel will support competition between them.
Because in other countries importers earn about $160 a dirty margin per ton, and in Ukraine – $300-400. That is, they have something to reduce the price to have a competitive value of merchandise. And the competition is high for our market fighting for. And not onlyn and Belarusian suppliers, but also Greek, Italian, Turkmen, Kazakh. Not to mention the traditional Polish, Lithuanian and Romanian suppliers.
According to Gennady Ryabtseva, the price of autogas stabiliziruemost (back to average) in September-October. But do not forget, said Mr. Ryabtsev that stock SG in Ukraine. Therefore, the price of the SG strongly depends on the regularity and volume of supply.
Approximately the same situation with DT. Objective reasons for price increase in September – no, said Mr. Ryabtsev. Moreover, now the global market oil prices dropped, and DT in Ukraine – no. Do not forget to increase the price of diesel fuel after there was talk about a possible ban onn supplies to Ukraine. Then the price per liter for 2 weeks has soared by more than UAH 1. 70 COP. But the ban has not occurred, the supply had increased, but the price never came back. Therefore, the sellers today and give a discount on a litre of diesel fuel to 3 UAH. They have where to move, because, by and large, it turns out that they sell to 3 UAH. per liter more expensive.
But as they say, there’s always the possibility of the occurrence of force majeure. For example, the fault of the same “Ukrzaliznytsya”. There is not enough rolling stock for large volumes of transportation fuel, and no respect for schedules and transit time.
According to Director of consulting company “A-95” Sergei Kuiun, there are risks and marine supplies. In September, the fuel reserves are exhausted, and ports will have to “digest” about 150 thousand tons. And this is a record amount, and it is not clear, will do without fail. In fact, as noted by Gennady Ryabtsev, the ports are now shipping of agricultural products. So, logistic risks are great enough.